(明報)2010年2月5日 星期五 05:10
【明報專訊】奧巴馬總統的國情咨文、其2011年預算，以及達沃斯峰會，都傳達了3個信息：
•首先，單靠奧巴馬魅力已起不了作用，就算演辭再激昂，他和白宮都受到無理和失常運作的參眾兩院留難和制約，要他們同意踏出果敢一步的機會是零。
•第二，當全球經濟危機已紓緩，但重建的任務只不過剛剛開始，重建將會是漫長，而在政治上處於弱勢的。
•第三，每一個經濟大國似乎都把帶他們走出衰退深淵的賭注押在出口上。每個人似乎都希望中國的消費者可收拾這殘局。這實在是癡人說夢！
這3個信息都使人深感不安。難怪有學者警告說，2010年可能會有愈來愈多意氣之爭的貿易衝突。
奧巴馬的預算案當中最大膽是1000億美元的刺激就業建議。當失業率停留在10％以上，奧巴馬政府備受指摘，提出這些建議是無可避免，但如果奧巴馬過往於醫療改革和深化「赤字恐慌」的紀錄能作參考的話，實在很難確定這個計劃能走得多遠。過去兩年美國貿赤不斷上升至約每月500億美元，預計到2010年更將衝破15,500億美元，是國內生產總值的10％以上，是60年來最高。
恢復「隨收隨付」原則有何用？
赤字危機顯然已迫在眉睫。奧巴馬承諾將恢復「隨收隨付」（pay-as-you-go）的開支原則，即要添加一頂新支出的同時必須削減其他開支，但當赤字如此龐大時，這做法又有什麼用？若只適用於「權衡性支出」（discretionary spending）——只佔政府支出的20％，不包括醫療保健、社會保障和軍費時——這做法又有何用？當國會的共和黨人立心要在11月國會選舉前為民主黨造成最大的尷尬時，設立「兩黨委員會」來尋找新削減開支方法又有何意義？
至於第2個信息，重建的挑戰為何只是剛剛開始，奧巴馬的預算案提供了一個精彩的說明——赤字保持在創紀錄的高水平，他預測到了2020年，赤字將被削減至國內生產總值4％左右。但銀行的呆壞帳仍然無人理會，許多銀行界人士不切實際地祈求房價盡快反彈以使問題消失，除了對銀行高層分花紅作出攻擊外，銀行業監管改革才剛開始。歐洲和日本銀行對美國的計劃反應強烈，因為它破壞了建立全球計劃的努力。
在美國唯一明確的調整是消費支出。消費支出已大幅下降，儲蓄水平過去一年由平均佔可支配收入1％升至近5％，顯然地美國消費者是在休整。進口減少，由2008年的平均每月超過1700億美元到2009年的每月不到1300億美元，2009年貿赤減少一半至3500億美元。但這會引領我們到第3個令人不安的消息。美國消費者短期內都不會刺激任何經濟增長，亦由於美國政府自身的經濟刺激計劃快用盡，刺激經濟的來源將只有一個——出口。到目前為止，仍未看到美國在出口方面有所改善，仍然維持在平均低於2008年的水平。這意味著貿易衝突將逐漸走向惡意，中國自然是首要目標。
國內「月光族」只會是少數
儘管中國似乎仍然決心保持其出口產業，但刺激國內消費的政策已起了一定作用。我們要感謝「月光族」——一個非正式的精英族群，主要是上海北京等大城市的年輕和正走向富裕的女士們——她們每月都要花光每一分錢工資。她們大部分住在家裏，沒有租金醫療等支出，亦無子女，毋須為子女教育費儲蓄。
但在美國出口商滿懷希望前，需強調「月光族」在未來若干年都只會是少數。今日中國人民每8人才有1張信用卡，英國平均每人有1張，美國每人有兩張。中國的家庭消費仍然非常低，是國內生產總值的約35％（美國是71％，亞洲其他地區平均有55至60％），並只會慢慢增加。McKinsey's Global Institute最近估計，隨著保健、老年生活及教育得到改善，2025年家庭消費可能會增至約50％。但對奧巴馬急於看到的新就業機會出現和生產復蘇，這是一個令人沮喪的消息。工會和國內保護主義說客肯定會給予更多壓力，要求他更加努力開拓中國市場。
因此，當中國代表團上周出席達沃斯世界經濟論壇時，與會人士似乎更熱中於向中國學習而不是告誡中國，中國代表團自然感到鬆一口氣。正如一位國際商人說：「感謝上帝，政客們都在攻擊銀行家，這可能會使他們停止攻擊中國。」希望他說對了。貿易衝突不會為任何人帶來好處。
作者杜大衛（David Dodwell） 是公共政策研究公司Strategic Access 總裁。他曾任《金融時報》駐港特派員，是The Hong Kong Advantage 一書作者之一
2010-02-07
Fun
Received a mail from my college friend, she sent me a list of her answers for some questions. They are quite personal, but it is good to learn from it what is going on from her side.
Interesting enough, for friends, we may know each other for long time, but because of distance, we may know each other well. Looking for the questions, and the answers, I have a feeling of getting friends closer.
I copied the questions here. If someone would like to share with your friends, copy the questions, and put the answers below, send to the friends you love, and share!!
Six names you go by:
Four things you are wearing right now:
Two things you want very badly at the moment:
Three people who will fill this out
Two things you did last night:
Favorite foods:
Two people you last talked to on the phone:
Two Things I am going to do tomorrow
Your favorite beverages:
Here's what you're supposed to do ..... And please do not Spoil the
fun.
Hit forward, delete the answers and type in your answers. Then send this
to a whole bunch of people you know INCLUDING the Person who sent it to
you. Have fun!!
Interesting enough, for friends, we may know each other for long time, but because of distance, we may know each other well. Looking for the questions, and the answers, I have a feeling of getting friends closer.
I copied the questions here. If someone would like to share with your friends, copy the questions, and put the answers below, send to the friends you love, and share!!
Six names you go by:
Four things you are wearing right now:
Two things you want very badly at the moment:
Three people who will fill this out
Two things you did last night:
Favorite foods:
Two people you last talked to on the phone:
Two Things I am going to do tomorrow
Your favorite beverages:
Here's what you're supposed to do ..... And please do not Spoil the
fun.
Hit forward, delete the answers and type in your answers. Then send this
to a whole bunch of people you know INCLUDING the Person who sent it to
you. Have fun!!
2010-02-06
Song - 永不放棄
曲：Gold/Mertens/Lloyds 詞：潘源良 編：
今生之中許多喜與悲 或是一切絕望與新機
通通因我當初有了自信 誓要達到目的地
* 好比飛機孤身天際飛 定立方向基於信與所知
七分本領三分靠運氣 沒法遇見目的地 *
世界變遷我也許不顧忌 現實玩弄不免叫我心痛悲
經多少次衝擊叫我受氣 淚也滴滿了地偏偏我不放棄
停住眼淚鼓起勇氣 永遠奮鬥就似沒有盡期
我跌下再翻起永不放棄 人面世事心中永記
苦楚之中找到新的趣味 我更是不肯放棄
(我更是有朝氣) 不肯天真去計劃前路
但是亦不再擔心跌了不起 種種轉變迫使我去面對
絕無話去躲避
Repeat *
有更重壓迫我也輸得起 闊步前往方知一切都美
奮鬥結果永不可預期 信心卻打不死
永不放棄鼓起勇氣 永遠奮鬥就似沒有盡期
我跌下再翻起 永不放棄心中永記
I love the lyric, yes, we should - Never Give Up!!
今生之中許多喜與悲 或是一切絕望與新機
通通因我當初有了自信 誓要達到目的地
* 好比飛機孤身天際飛 定立方向基於信與所知
七分本領三分靠運氣 沒法遇見目的地 *
世界變遷我也許不顧忌 現實玩弄不免叫我心痛悲
經多少次衝擊叫我受氣 淚也滴滿了地偏偏我不放棄
停住眼淚鼓起勇氣 永遠奮鬥就似沒有盡期
我跌下再翻起永不放棄 人面世事心中永記
苦楚之中找到新的趣味 我更是不肯放棄
(我更是有朝氣) 不肯天真去計劃前路
但是亦不再擔心跌了不起 種種轉變迫使我去面對
絕無話去躲避
Repeat *
有更重壓迫我也輸得起 闊步前往方知一切都美
奮鬥結果永不可預期 信心卻打不死
永不放棄鼓起勇氣 永遠奮鬥就似沒有盡期
我跌下再翻起 永不放棄心中永記
I love the lyric, yes, we should - Never Give Up!!
Working in the Restaurant of Boone Tavern Hotel ....
I read the Berea Magazine that Boone Tavern had a renovation work long time ago, as I want to start to put all my college memories into words, I start to refresh my mind and search over Internet to see the new Boone Tavern, I got this from YouTube about the kitchen of Boone Tavern:
the size of kitchen didn't change, but with a lot of new equipment, I can remember the same location of the walk-in refrigerator and cooler. The hot station and the cold station had changed the location though.
Though we worked in the restaurant, we had a very close relationship with the kitchen staff and the chefs.
My early task in Boone Tavern was serving spoon bread. This bread is very famous in the area, many people came over because of the bread !!!
Comparing with the tasks of the waiter/waitress, it was a very easy job, I just needed to make sure to serve all the guests the famous spoon bread- we served this only for dinner, not for lunch time, some people were disappointed about that.
I still remember that I could finish the bread very quick and I usually immediately went back to kitchen to get another hot one from the oven. I worked very hard.
Usually, they were gone very quick, as many people liked to eat it. After that, I would help my buddies to clear the table, served coffee or set the tables etc.
As time passed, I started to learn to serve table.
It took times, I needed to take orders from the guests, who usually liked to ask a lot of questions from the menu ( at that time, we had different menu for every meal, therefore at the beginning, I really had difficulties to explain, but later on, it went well)....I also need to remember their starters, main course, drinks, desserts...
After taking orders, it was our busy time. Since all the guests came at the same time, each waiter/waitress might need to take care 8-12 guests at one time (it depended whether it was week day or weekend).
We needed to go back to kitchen to prepare the cold drinks/soups, and key in the register their orders, so that the chefs started to prepare the dish.
Learning the location of the table was also a new thing to me, they didn't directly label the table with number ( I think traditional high class hotel either).
We divided the restaurant into two areas - south and north, then the right hand side and the left hand side of each room. This was the location, then we gave the number - the first number would indicate the sequence of the table, the second number indicate the size of the table ( serving number of people). The label of the table was not put on the table, but we needed to key in the register correctly, otherwise, the food would be sent to the wrong table.
I remember I usually served the golden tables(4-5 tables near the window). When the guests waited to be seated, These tables were assigned to be filled first - LS14,LR12 ,LS26, LS24 etc etc.
We should not wait in the area to check the progress, but once in a while, went to the area to clear their dishes, and then sent their main course ( or dessert at the end) to their table. It was a matter of time management skills, we should keep distance of the customers, but served as they needed, especially the coffee ( regular or decaf). People would not rush for the dinner as the price was quite expensive, guests were requested to dress up to eat in the restaurant.
Thanks for the guidance of my seniors, even though I had hard time at the beginning, to learn every new thing in the restaurant/kitchen, I could overcome and became head waitress in few months later. For most of my shifts, I was usually assigned as the number one waitress, to serve the window table customers. I worked for all the thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year, Easter, Mother's Day, Graduation meals, I also learned a lot and experienced a lot of the American Eating cultures - e.g. doggier bag - I think it is a good habit, not to waste the food!
After one semester, in four months' time, my first February in Berea, I obtained an award as Freshman of the Month in the Hotel. It was a high honour, and my name was put on an golden plate which placed on the wall near the entrance of the Restaurant.
Actually, I think I learned a lot of hotel management skills there too, and I also applied some techniques to help me to serve the guests better, some of them were also picked up by my buddies.
I always took the order according to the seating sequence, this went well, and I would never mixed up who ordered what, their food were 100% correct, people said that I had a good memory, actually, I just put them on the ticket :)
The restaurant manager (Mr. Steward ) was a nice man, he sometimes talked with the guests in the dining room, and checked with the expectation.
At that time, the restaurant supervisors were Margaret, Delois and James. They also worked on shifts, among them, Delois was the coolest one, she always worked for lunch. Overall, they were nice. They taught us how to serve customers - e.g. put the dish from the left hand side; for drink, right hand side, we should walk around the table and serve beside the customer.
I usually got good compliments from guest and they told me that they had a wonderful eating time served by me. Several guests also sent me postcards/ letters, I was so happy and appreciate all the encouragement.
At the end of my freshman year, I spent my first(also the only one) summer vacation in Berea, and I worked in the restaurant for 8 weeks.
It was about end of June, one morning, I work for breakfast shift, and I got the chance to serve an old lady who was an alumni and came back for the summer reunion. I was a little bit surprised that two weeks later, she sent me a nice thank you card with a check of USD 50 to appreciate my service and wished me good luck in Berea. I was really moved by her generosity.
Side story : she wrote my name correctly, and she sent the card to the only female dorm (during summer break, the college only opened one dorm for the international students). The post office re-direct the mail to my mail box !! In return, I sent her a thank you letter. I just wondered whether she is still alive today, she told me she was a musician.
Macau Street Sights
1- Begger
Saturday evening, passed by "San Ma Lou", in front of the bus stop of Weng Hang Bank, there was a poor elderly women begging for money, she was kind of sitting on the ground and held a small plastic mug. Inside the mug, there were several 5-dollar and 1-dollar coins.
It made me to remember, when I was small, whenever I went out dinner with my uncle, after dinner on our way home, he always put the coins inside the mug of the beggars in San Ma Lou ( they were in Tai Fung Bank side), he stressed that we were lucky, we should help others whenever we could.
This scenery didn't happen for long time, as when I grew up, it seem that the beggars disappeared in the busy street.
But now, they are coming back!!
One thing I learned from the coins inside the mug today - it is kind of psychology effect - the beggar kept the coins and let the people know that others are kind enough to offer, therefore, if the other people are kind enough, they should also put the coins in !!!
2 - Shop assistant selling beef jerky
Not far away from Weng Hang Bank, saw a lady with a nice dress and stocking, standing in front of the chinese bakery shop, holding a pair of scissors, and tried to persuade people to taste the beef jerky.
Just can't image, in a busy street, a well-dressed lady holding a pair of scissors in this occassion ( may be I am expecting a worker in his working clothes to sell the beef jerky, it would be more approporiate!!)
3. Shop assistants on the street to call for people to eat in the shops
Rua Alfandega is the street where my father lives, as a result, I pass the street several times a day, however, I am kind of annoyed by the shop assistants standing on the street to persuade people to enter their shops to eat, form lunch time to dinner time.
Fierce competition, at the beginning, there was only one shop, later on , opposite the shop, there was another one. Both of them emphasise that their shark's fin soup is famous and delicious, their target customers are tourists.
Saturday evening, passed by "San Ma Lou", in front of the bus stop of Weng Hang Bank, there was a poor elderly women begging for money, she was kind of sitting on the ground and held a small plastic mug. Inside the mug, there were several 5-dollar and 1-dollar coins.
It made me to remember, when I was small, whenever I went out dinner with my uncle, after dinner on our way home, he always put the coins inside the mug of the beggars in San Ma Lou ( they were in Tai Fung Bank side), he stressed that we were lucky, we should help others whenever we could.
This scenery didn't happen for long time, as when I grew up, it seem that the beggars disappeared in the busy street.
But now, they are coming back!!
One thing I learned from the coins inside the mug today - it is kind of psychology effect - the beggar kept the coins and let the people know that others are kind enough to offer, therefore, if the other people are kind enough, they should also put the coins in !!!
2 - Shop assistant selling beef jerky
Not far away from Weng Hang Bank, saw a lady with a nice dress and stocking, standing in front of the chinese bakery shop, holding a pair of scissors, and tried to persuade people to taste the beef jerky.
Just can't image, in a busy street, a well-dressed lady holding a pair of scissors in this occassion ( may be I am expecting a worker in his working clothes to sell the beef jerky, it would be more approporiate!!)
3. Shop assistants on the street to call for people to eat in the shops
Rua Alfandega is the street where my father lives, as a result, I pass the street several times a day, however, I am kind of annoyed by the shop assistants standing on the street to persuade people to enter their shops to eat, form lunch time to dinner time.
Fierce competition, at the beginning, there was only one shop, later on , opposite the shop, there was another one. Both of them emphasise that their shark's fin soup is famous and delicious, their target customers are tourists.
廣州美食
閱報獲悉廣州著名小吃申遺，他們是沙河粉、西關鹹煎餅、荔灣艇仔粥、泮塘馬蹄糕、狀元及第粥、布拉腸粉、生滾粥、沙灣薑埋奶（薑汁撞奶）、粵式月餅、雞仔餅共10種。
雖然我不是來自廣州, 但以上的美味傳統食物全都是我喜歡吃的!
雖然我不是來自廣州, 但以上的美味傳統食物全都是我喜歡吃的!
2010-02-05
Orientation Week
The first week in Berea was very busy, as we had a lot of orientation activities.
Moving in the dormitory, opening post office box, opening bank account, taking placement tests, meeting the International Student Advisor, visiting the faculty professor, checking the work place and different campus buildings, finishing registration, familiar myself the direction of the campus - the food service, draper building, library, computer center...
All the things were quite new for me, in addition, I had no friend when I first arrived there at that time.
For freshman, we were requested to arrive earlier to adjust ourselves.
I had an African roommate for my freshman year. She only arrived 3 days later as courses had not started yet. My roommate was very nice to me, she was a sophomore, majoring in Business Management at that time ( Interesting enough, she went for a nursing major for her Master degree few years later).
Therefore, I was alone for few nights at the beginning, I told myself I could overcome everything by myself.
I was kind of depressed when I first knew that my labor assignment was working in the dinning room of Boone Tavern. Not the office work or other things else!
In addition, I also found that it was difficult for me to communicate with people, I could not catch up as they spoke very fast, not to say that if sometimes they told jokes, I was definitely lost!!
This was also my first time to work in shifts, there was no fixed working schedule, I needed to check my shifts once every week, sometimes, I worked for breakfast, sometimes lunch, sometimes dinner. If for dinner, we had to wait under all the guests left.
For the first week, I didn't realise ( times per week to work were not fixed either) that I overlooked the schedule and I missed one shift, I got a warning letter from the hotel manager, and I needed to meet her. I was pretty down, and I explained to her my case.
The lady reminded me to be careful next time as staff were shortage for the business, missing one person meant staff had more work to take care of.
As time passed, I could adjust myself by overcoming different kinds of difficulties - I could meet plenty of international students over there ( getting some good advices and experiences from them), and some American students as well, the exposure was even much greater than in the classroom. I met several good friends in the restaurant, as well as many many customers.
One disappointed thing in the orientation week - it happened that my first dinner shift in the dining room in Boone Tavern was exactly the night the president offered a gathering for us.
However, there were many guests for dinner on that night, it was a very busy night; after the dinner, we had also to prepare the tables for next day's breakfast and a room of table setting for next days' lunch party.
As a result, I missed the opportunity to participate the President's welcoming party for all the freshmen - I heard it was a wonderful time to meet all the freshmen in the President 's house! (Someone even told me that this was a good chance to meet the college president).
I still remember very well, not me, the other freshman, who was from Indonesia ( M) , two of us together missed this occasion. Nevertheless, we met a very nice sophmore (student manger - K) helped us and taught us for our first dinner of work in Boone Tavern!!
Moving in the dormitory, opening post office box, opening bank account, taking placement tests, meeting the International Student Advisor, visiting the faculty professor, checking the work place and different campus buildings, finishing registration, familiar myself the direction of the campus - the food service, draper building, library, computer center...
All the things were quite new for me, in addition, I had no friend when I first arrived there at that time.
For freshman, we were requested to arrive earlier to adjust ourselves.
I had an African roommate for my freshman year. She only arrived 3 days later as courses had not started yet. My roommate was very nice to me, she was a sophomore, majoring in Business Management at that time ( Interesting enough, she went for a nursing major for her Master degree few years later).
Therefore, I was alone for few nights at the beginning, I told myself I could overcome everything by myself.
I was kind of depressed when I first knew that my labor assignment was working in the dinning room of Boone Tavern. Not the office work or other things else!
In addition, I also found that it was difficult for me to communicate with people, I could not catch up as they spoke very fast, not to say that if sometimes they told jokes, I was definitely lost!!
This was also my first time to work in shifts, there was no fixed working schedule, I needed to check my shifts once every week, sometimes, I worked for breakfast, sometimes lunch, sometimes dinner. If for dinner, we had to wait under all the guests left.
For the first week, I didn't realise ( times per week to work were not fixed either) that I overlooked the schedule and I missed one shift, I got a warning letter from the hotel manager, and I needed to meet her. I was pretty down, and I explained to her my case.
The lady reminded me to be careful next time as staff were shortage for the business, missing one person meant staff had more work to take care of.
As time passed, I could adjust myself by overcoming different kinds of difficulties - I could meet plenty of international students over there ( getting some good advices and experiences from them), and some American students as well, the exposure was even much greater than in the classroom. I met several good friends in the restaurant, as well as many many customers.
One disappointed thing in the orientation week - it happened that my first dinner shift in the dining room in Boone Tavern was exactly the night the president offered a gathering for us.
However, there were many guests for dinner on that night, it was a very busy night; after the dinner, we had also to prepare the tables for next day's breakfast and a room of table setting for next days' lunch party.
As a result, I missed the opportunity to participate the President's welcoming party for all the freshmen - I heard it was a wonderful time to meet all the freshmen in the President 's house! (Someone even told me that this was a good chance to meet the college president).
I still remember very well, not me, the other freshman, who was from Indonesia ( M) , two of us together missed this occasion. Nevertheless, we met a very nice sophmore (student manger - K) helped us and taught us for our first dinner of work in Boone Tavern!!
正能量信念的金句 Inspiration Quotes
在巴士車廂內看見一張不起眼的小小海報,
一個公開的比賽,
徵集正能量信念的金句,
鼓勵市民做生命中的不倒翁,
第一期的冠軍金句為:
不要給自己放棄的第一個理由!
Inside the bus cabin, there was a little unattractive poster,
it was an announcement of a public competition,
inviting for the submission of Inspiration Quotes,
aiming to encourage the citizens to be strong to face all the challenges in our life,
the golden quote of the first-runner up for the phase 1 is:
Never give myself the first reaon to give up!!
一個公開的比賽,
徵集正能量信念的金句,
鼓勵市民做生命中的不倒翁,
第一期的冠軍金句為:
不要給自己放棄的第一個理由!
Inside the bus cabin, there was a little unattractive poster,
it was an announcement of a public competition,
inviting for the submission of Inspiration Quotes,
aiming to encourage the citizens to be strong to face all the challenges in our life,
the golden quote of the first-runner up for the phase 1 is:
Never give myself the first reaon to give up!!
Laksa in Food Court of Macau Square
It is always good to meet friends and have the update! I have lunch with C and P in Macau Square today.
It was my first time eating in the Food Court in Macau Square, and I was surprised that there were plenty of people eating there during lunch hour.
I chose Laksa, and I think it was good, as the soup was tasty.
The portion was good too, but P reminded me that I had two bowls instead of one, as he commented that if we ate in "Three Lamp Post" area, the amount I spent was about two bowls of noodles.
Actually, enjoyed the talk very much with C who just came back from Europe, she starts to work in Macau now. Three of us met in French class few years ago!!!
It was my first time eating in the Food Court in Macau Square, and I was surprised that there were plenty of people eating there during lunch hour.
I chose Laksa, and I think it was good, as the soup was tasty.
The portion was good too, but P reminded me that I had two bowls instead of one, as he commented that if we ate in "Three Lamp Post" area, the amount I spent was about two bowls of noodles.
Actually, enjoyed the talk very much with C who just came back from Europe, she starts to work in Macau now. Three of us met in French class few years ago!!!
2010-02-03
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