現時澳門經濟呈明顯結構分化：旅遊休閒主線維持增長，但北區、舊城區舖位空置率上升，個別老店、社區超市結業，市面感覺偏淡。
銀行信貸並非全面停止借貸，而是分類審慎管理：商用物業、舖位投資貸款收緊，如華僑永亨等銀行提高風險門檻；反之自住住宅按揭有政府政策支持，按揭成數放寬，住宅貸款維持正常審批。
吉舖問題源於多重結構因素，不單是信貸收緊，當中包括「澳車北上」令居民消費北移、舖租成本高、舊一代店主退休無人接手，遊客消費重心又集中於氹仔路環，舊區難以分享旅遊紅利。
宏觀上IMF預測2026年澳門經濟有正增長，失業率維持低位；弱點在產業單一，舊區中小企調整屬長期過程，短期難見大改善。投資層面，住宅自住較有政策保障，商用舖位則要高度審慎。
Diary｜October 2026
Macao Economy：Key Analysis
Macao’s economy in late 2026 presents clear structural polarisation. Overall tourism growth remains steady, yet old districts and community retail sectors face noticeable recession reflected in rising vacant shops and closure of local outlets. Banks have selectively tightened commercial property credit while keeping residential mortgage policies supportive, indicating cautious market liquidity rather than an overall economic downturn. Current sluggish street business results from cross-border consumption diversion, high rentals and ageing local merchants, rather than a general economic decline.
Analysis
Macao’s economy shows a stark structural divergence. While its core tourism and leisure sector keeps expanding, shop vacancies have risen notably in the Northern District and Old Town, with some local stores and community supermarkets closing down, creating a subdued street-level business atmosphere.
Banks have not halted lending across the board; instead, they adopt differentiated risk controls. Financial institutions such as OCBC Wing Hang have tightened criteria for commercial property and shop investment loans. By contrast, residential mortgage loans for owner-occupied homes remain accessible, backed by government measures including higher loan-to-value ratios.
The surge in empty shop units stems from multiple structural shifts rather than credit tightening alone. The “Macao Vehicles Entering Guangdong” scheme has drawn local consumer spending north to Zhuhai. High rental costs, business succession issues as elderly shop owners retire, and tourists’ concentration on Cotai and Coloane further weaken business prospects in older neighbourhoods.
At the Macao level, the IMF forecasts positive economic growth for Macao in 2026 with low unemployment. Nonetheless, the economy remains overly reliant on tourism, and the revival of small local businesses in old districts will take time. From an investment perspective, owner-occupied residential properties enjoy policy support, whereas commercial shop investments carry substantial risks and require extreme caution.
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